In his striking reflection on the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scores, titled “Many Children Left Behind,” AEI senior fellow Mark Schneider sounds the alarm on the perpetuation of students’ low performance in schools (especially post-COVID).
The truth is, despite having seen the clear trends present in the past several years (which I get into below), many educators and policymakers still embrace the status quo and neglect to make changes that could result in better scores.
Before I explain the reality of student performance, let me lay out a few definitions I am going to cite throughout. According to the National Assessment Governing Board, which sets policy for NAEP:
- Proficient: demonstrates competency over challenging subject matter, which includes knowledge of it, its application to real-world situations, and the ability to analyze it. (Please note: this is different from how “proficiency” is typically used.)
- Below basic: Unable to demonstrate even partial mastery of the foundational knowledge and skills necessary for proficiency
In both math and reading, 4th and 8th grade students who rank “below basic” are on the rise and students who rank “proficient” are steadily declining. Since the school closures during COVID, the percentage of students who rank “proficient” in both subject areas dipped below the number of students who rank “below basic,” and the disparity continues to widen.
Let me explain:
4th grade reading:
- In 2017, “proficiency” rates started decreasing as “below basic” rates, which started increasing in 2015, continued to climb.
- By 2019, only 35 percent of 4th graders were proficient at reading while 34 percent of students did not achieve a basic level of understanding.
- The rates crossed each other due to COVID, and by 2022 the “below basic rate” skyrocketed to 37 percent while the “proficiency” rate plummeted to 33 percent.
- By 2024, the disparity grew to 10 points, with FORTY percent of students scoring below basic and only 30 percent ranking proficient.
8th grade reading:
- Again in 2017, the “proficiency” rate (36) began to decline while the “below basic” rate (24) started steadily climbing.
- By 2019, only 34 percent of 8th graders were proficient at reading while 27 percent could not achieve NAEP’s basic level of understanding.
- COVID perpetuated the respective fall and rise of both rates until they crossed each other after 2022. Now, as of 2024, only 30 percent of students are proficient while 33 percent of students rank below basic. It is possible that the fall of 8th grade reading “proficiency” is beginning to taper, but “below basic” rates continue to steadily climb at about 3 percent every two years.
8th grade math:
- 4th grade math scores are relatively better than eighth grade scores, which poses a problem: unlike reading performance, students fare worse in math as they get older.
- In 2019, 34 percent of 8th graders were proficient at math while 31 percent could not achieve basic understanding. The “below basic” rate had been increasing slowly since 2013.
- When COVID hit, the number of students who ranked “below basic” skyrocketed to 38 percent, while proficiency rates plummeted to 26 percent. It seems that the decline in proficiency rates is beginning to plateau, and hopefully starting to increase. That said, the “below basic” rate continues to grow.
- In 2024, only 28 percent of 8th graders were proficient in math while 39 percent did not achieve basic understanding.
Since the lockdowns, the benchmark for recovery has been “returning to pre-COVID proficiency rates.” You can see, however, that those were already in decline before 2019. Perhaps more worrisome, “below basic” rates were steadily growing well before then.
It is clear that while returning to pre-COVID rates is a worthy short-term goal, it is not nearly ambitious enough. Policymakers and educators must focus on reversing the trend of “below basic” scoring before they can make a real impact in increasing NAEP-level proficiency.
The 2024 NAEP scores demonstrate that whatever measures are in place post-COVID are not working. It is time to reevaluate if we hope to set our students up for success and reverse the damage done by both the COVID lockdowns and harmful education policy the past couple of decades.